Queen, queen, where is the queen? Or, yet another swarm.

When I was bottling beer, Maidi exclaimed "Another swarm!"  Sure enough, there was a cloud of bees near Olea's hive.  It slowly and erratically moved over the fence into Paul's yard.
Earlier today I had checked the cluster in his yard and it was still there.  So I wondered if this cloud could be the cluster on its way to its new home.  I scurried into Paul's yard and saw that the cluster  was gone. 
Was today's swarm the cluster?  A new swarm?  I watched it and surprisingly it settled onto the same bush that the older cluster had been on.
There are three clumps of bees, the smallest at the lower edge of the picture.  The queen is in one of them but they all have not yet figured it out.
I looked in Olea's window and there are still a lot of bees, but there is bare comb at the end.
So what's going on?  It certainly would be easier if each colony wore a different uniform.
Possibility 1:  The cluster left unobserved for a new home in the hour-and-a-half between the time I checked them and the time the swarm appeared, when, coincidentally, Olea's hive swarmed and the queen landed on the same bush only a foot away from where the cluster had been.
Possibility 2:  The cluster left for its new home but for some reason (perhaps the queen did not go with them) they returned to their bush.  While the cloud of bees was in the air, a woodpecker was flying through eating bees.  Could it have,against great odds, eaten the queen?
I do not think we will ever know the truth, but does it matter?  The bees endure.